Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
